Between a Rock and a Hard Place

Pat Buchanan writes:

Obama’s dilemma, evident in his State of the Union, is that the progressives, who were indispensable to his victories over Hillary, now feel betrayed, especially with apparent abandonment of health insurance reform, while conservative Democrats and independents, who were indispensable in giving Obama his November victory, are angry and alienated and disposed to vote Republican to stop what they see as America’s plunge into socialism.

The non-negotiable demands of these two essential elements of Obama’s coalition are in irreconcilable conflict. Obama tried to mollify both in his address to Congress by emphasizing aspects of his agenda that appeal to each. Thus the progressives were promised an end to the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy on gays in the military, while Tea Party and town-hall activists got a partial freeze on federal spending and promises of nuclear power, clean coal and offshore drilling.

Obama’s problem: He can end up satisfying no one and angering everyone.

Arthur Laffer has pointed up the burgeoning crisis Obama and the progressives confront. Today, state, local and federal government spending consumes 38 percent of the gross domestic product. Federal spending alone is 27 percent.

“If you total what the government takes in the income tax, corporate tax, Social Security taxes, capital gains taxes,” says Laffer, “all of that adds up to $2.2 trillion in tax receipts, and they spent $3.5 trillion.”

In 2009, we had a deficit of $1.4 trillion, 10 percent of GDP. The most conservative estimate for this year is a deficit of $1.35 trillion, more than 9 percent of GDP

Obama has a problem — and so do we

I think Buchanan's analysis here is basically correct. Obama seems to be caught between two angry or irreconcilable forces: the progressives/populists/independents on his left and the Fox-viewing conservatives/Republicans/Teabaggers on his right.  And he is getting squeezed to death in the middle.

And unlike Clinton in the 90's, who was similarly caught, he doesn't have a good economy/stock market going for him. 

All of this leads me to make a longterm prediction, with a heavy heart, of the political disintegration of Obama and possible failure in the 2012 election.  But even more saddening, a failure to make significant headway on the national problems which we face, because of his political paralysis. 

I hope I'm wrong.