Monday, May 18, 2009

One Contrarian's Vision of the American Future

Here is James Kuntler's summary vision of the American Future:

There are plenty of things you can state about the economy past and future
with some confidence right now:

-- Cheap energy is over and our wishes for alt.energy are currently
inconsistent with reality, meaning we have to live differently.

-- We have to downscale and re-localize our major economic activities: food
production, commerce and manufacturing, banking, schooling, etc.

-- We can't hope to have a stable money system unless we allow a workout of
unpayable debt to proceed.

-- Even if we can do this, universal easy credit is a thing of the past.
From now on, we have to save for the things we want and run our businesses and
households on accounts receivable.

-- Major demographic shifts are inevitable as it becomes necessary to let
go of suburbia and reactivate our derelict towns and smaller cities (and allow
our giant metroplexes to contract).

-- We have to face the truth that our major social contracts cannot be met,
namely the continuation of social security as we know it and probably all
pension arrangements. We'll probably have to change household arrangements to
make up for these losses.

-- Health care will have to go through a revolution more comprehensive than
just changing how we pay for it. Like everything else, it will have to
downscale, re-localize, and become more rigorous.

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