Monday, February 1, 2016

Predictions for the 2016 Iowa Caucuses



Predictions for tonight's Iowa caucuses?

Here's my analysis. On the Republican side, it's obviously a squeaker with Trump or Cruz on top, with Rubio third. Trump probably has the momentum, but the question is whether he can get his supporters out to the caucuses, many of whom have never participated before. The evangelicals are strong there in the Iowa Republican, so that part of me thinks that Cruz will probably end up taking it. But I wouldn't be surprised if Trump pulls it out. If Cruz loses tonight, he's effectively out of the race, and Trump is strengthened for the rest of the race.

SO HERE'S MY BET: TRUMP BY A NOSE. 

On the Democratic side, it's also a squeaker between Sanders and Clinton. Sanders has the passion, while Clinton has the machine. If Sanders wins here, then in New Hampshire, it could be a long primary season. If Clinton wins tonight, then she will probably wrap up the nomination quickly. In other words, a lot is riding on this outcome tonight.

SO HERE'S MY BET: SANDERS BY A NOSE.

3 comments:

  1. I had thought that Sanders had every bit as good of a machine due to student passion. Surely Cruz can't win after that ad he mailed out that pretended to be from the state government.

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    1. I find it hard to believe that with all the issues that have been raised about Cruz, especially the Canadian birth, that he can win. But evangelicals can be very loyal to one of their own, so we'll see.

      As for Clinton 'machine', I was referring to the more mechanical quality of the Clinton support, which doesn't have the passion that Sanders engenders. Unfortunately, students are less reliable when it comes to actually voting or going to caucus, so again, we'll see. Thanks for your comment.

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