Monday, February 16, 2009

Too Much Consumption

In a very insightful and helpful column about Japan's economy, Robert Samuelson ends with this challenge for the American economy:

Since the early 1980s, American economic growth has depended on a steady rise in consumer spending supported by more debt and increasing asset prices (stocks, homes). Just as the mid-1980s signaled the end of Japan's export-led growth, the present U.S. slump signals the end of upbeat, consumption-led growth. But its legacy is an overbuilt and overemployed consumption sector, from car dealers to malls. The question is whether our system is adaptive enough to create new sources of growth to fill the void left by retreating shoppers.

I think Obama wants to go there, with alternative energy sources and the accompanying technological innovations that could be shared with the world. But will the political situation let him do it, including the very provocative step of making carbon-based fuels more expensive? That's the big question.

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