Obama: Lucky or Smart?

In recent days, the national trend has moved towards nationalization of the banks. First you had Lindsay Graham support it. Then today Alan Greenspan came out in support of it. Its important to remember how amazing this would have seemed even one month ago: that you would have "the godfather of capitalism" and dyed in the wool conservatives calling for bank nationalization! Its starting to seem like everybody is begging the Obama administration to nationalize, and they are reportedly moving in that direction. So now, my guess is, Obama will decide to do what the national consensus is calling for. How easy for him! So the question is, was Obama lucky or smart to end up in this situation?

From the negative reviews of Geithner's original bailout proposal, many would say "lucky." After all, Geithner's plan was vague, and pro-bank, and proved that they don't know what they are doing!!

But, maybe, just maybe, the actual purpose of Geithner's vague rollout was to stimulate the national discussion that has got us to this exact point. Imagine if Obama had come out strongly in support of nationalization. He would have been tarred as a socialist, and all of the arguments against nationalization would have been mobilized and heard loudly. Instead, Obama laid out the pros and cons, and let the national debate take its course. It ended up the only place it could end up--in favor of nationalization. So now, all Obama has to do is step in and do the "right" thing that everyone wants him to do. He can lead from the center, rather than push from the fringe.

So lucky or smart? I'm going with smart. This is how he operated time and time again in the campaign, and I see no reason to doubt that he saw how this would play out, and calibrated his strategy accordingly.