Personally, I think the stock market has reached it ceiling (DOW 10,000) and will become very volatile now, but is generally headed downward. I think that despite all the talk of 'recovery', that we're still in for a rough ride for a long time. Commercial real estate is not coming back anytime soon, nor is residential real estate as long as incomes and employment stay depressed, as they are. Bankers can make all the money they want, but it really isn't going to help the 'main street' economy that much. The CNBC pundits and other economists can glow and optimize all they want, and we may have avoided a truly dreadful depression, but things are still pretty miserable for a lot of people.
The only assurance I can give you (which isn't much) is that I pulled my personal pension money that I control at the Methodist Board of Pension out of stocks and basically into the equivalent of cash about three months before things crashed in September, 2008. And then I put it back into the market early last summer and got a lot of the returns that came over the last five to six months.
In other words, I avoided some of the loss and profited from a lot of the gain from the last 18 months.
I've now pulled it out again about a week ago at about the 10,000 level. So we'll see what happens.
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