More than one might expect from a terrorist organization based in remote caves, over the years Al-Queda has shown remarkable sophistication at understanding and influencing American politics. Think back to the famous videotape released by Bin Laden before the 2004 election, which the CIA determined was meant to help Bush win re-election. Along those lines, what will be Bin Laden's reaction as he confronts the fact that America has elected a president named Barack Hussein Obama?
Bin Laden's first thought was probably something along the lines of "well played, sir." In one fell swoop, America has created a powerful propaganda tool to counter Islamic Fundamentalism in the Middle East. As Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek, notes:
President-elect Obama has powers of his own, too. I will not exaggerate the importance of a single personality, but Obama has become a global symbol like none I can recall in my lifetime. Were he to go to Tehran, for example, he would probably draw a crowd of millions, far larger than any mullah could dream of.
Imagine that! Bin Laden must be more than a little jealous right now. He must be thinking, "what can I do to knock this popular newcomer off his pedestal and get back to that whole 'clash of civilizations' paradigm that was working so well for me?"
The answer is easy enough to guess: a terrorist attack on American soil. An attack would hurt Obama politically at home. It would make conservatives whisper that the new liberal president is too weak to defend America, after all Bush stopped the attacks after 9/11. It would force Obama to counter-attack somewhere in the Middle East, reducing his popularity among Muslims. It would also put another shock in the already comatose American economy.
If I were a more well-known pundit or politician, this would be too dangerous an idea to bring up. But I'd be willing to bet that this is a major unspoken worry of all the top people right now, which added even more impetus for Obama to choose experienced, competent folks for national security even if he clashes with them ideologically from time to time. This is a moment of both possibility and peril-- let's hope the American people stand together and refuse to make the same mistakes made after 9/11 if something awful happens.
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