Joe Biden and His Hawkish Advisors

 Assuming that Joe Biden becomes President on January 20 (which at this point I do), what will be the likely shape of his foreign and defense policy?  As Teyve in Fiddler on the Roof put it, that I can tell you in one word.

Hawkish!

Why do I think that?  Won't Joe Biden simply be more cooperative and friendly to other nations and their leaders than Trump?  Isn't Uncle Joe just a nice guy who wants to be friends with everyone?

It would be easy to think this way, but honestly you need to look behind the curtain to see the reality here.  Case in point: just look at what Republicans were ferociously anti-Trump, for example.  The biggest NeverTrumpers were largely so-called neo-conservative militant hawks like Bill Kristol, David Frum, Robert Kagen, Victoria Nuland, Bret Stephens, and Jennifer Rubin.  And of course we shouldn't forget John McCain, whose widow Cindy McCain endorsed Joe Biden in the recent campaign, thus possibly throwing Arizona into the Democratic column.  

What did all of these people have in common?  They are all unanimously 'liberal interventionists', whose greatest desire is to militarily intervene wherever it is feasible to do so (and sometimes where it's not) in an effort to turn the entire globe into a 'liberal democracy'.  Sounds good, doesn't it, except that that turns out to be a recipe for endless war and military occupation.  Shades of Iraq 2003.

Believe me, with these folks in important positions in the Biden State and Defense Departments, our military will remain in all the places they currently reside, and they are likely to touch down in new places as well.  And the military-industrial complex will once again be pleased.

Perhaps you are one of those people who had been led by the unrelentingly anti-Trump Big Media to believe that Trump was a foolhardy hawk, ready to carelessly blow the world up with one of his crazy statements.  Sorry to disappoint you.  In fact, it's Joe Biden, whom Robert Gates, Secretary of Defense under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, said had gotten every major foreign policy in his long career in government wrong.

In historical hindsight, I believe that Donald Trump's foreign policy will be largely seen as restrained, realistic, and effective in keeping us out of new wars.  Which is one of the reasons I voted for him in the first place.

Two weeks after the 2020 Election, There is No President-Elect. And That's Okay.

We're now two weeks after the 2020 election, so where do things stand?  

The Big Media--Big Tech--Democratic Party complex is, of course, all-in on considering Joe Biden to be the 'President-Elect'.  That is understandable, of course, but it's not technically correct.  Big Media, let alone the Democrats, are nowhere in the fundamental law of our country, the Constitution, considered to be the decider of that issue.  Rather, the Electoral College, meeting on December 14th by state in each of the 50 state capitols, is the actual authority in this matter.  And from what I understand, the results aren't actually completely finalized until they are received in the Congress sometime in early January.  Only then is it totally definitive as to who the new President-Elect is going to be.

In the meantime, President Trump and many of his voters are not conceding this election.  Rather, they are currently contesting the results in about six swing states with investigations and lawsuits.  There is of course recent precedent for this.  In 2000, the Presidential contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore was not decided for some 37 days after the election itself.  Gore did not concede the election (not that that is legally necessarily at all) until that period of time was over.

That being the case, what's the problem with taking 5 or 6 weeks to work through the post-election process before prematurely declaring anyone the President-elect?  None that I can see.  Therefore, as of now, I do not consider Joe Biden to be the President-Elect, and I don't see anything wrong or abnormal or disrespectful about that.

Many people on the ideological Left in this country would like to imagine that we are to an historical turning point where the formal electoral procedures laid out in the Constitution can be safely ignored. 

 At least half of the country disagrees with that.  Ferociously.  Adamantly.  Defiantly.

So let's all chill for a few weeks.  There's no rush here.  Let's do this right.  

A House Divided

 In my previous post, I tried to analyze the more objective factors that might affect the outcome of today's election.  And I ended up predicting a narrow Trump win.  I wouldn't necessarily bet very much money on that outcome, but that is my best guess at this moment!

Which is also my hope for the next four years as well.  My basic reasons for voting for Trump have not significantly changed in the last four years.  In fact, my confidence in voting for Trump has only deepened based on the behavior of both the opposing Democratic Party and our legacy Media.  To put it simply, I am increasing disgusted with the behavior of the Democrats and the Media.  They have acted, in my opinion, in irresponsible, dishonest, corrupt and increasingly radical ways over the last four years.  I can truly say that there is not one thing that I find myself in agreement on with the current Democratic Party.

That is NOT to say that I therefore agree with the Republican Party or President Trump on all matters.  In fact, there has been a significant struggle within the Republican Party over the direction of the party and the country in all the significant areas of political life, including foreign policy, economic and trade policy, immigration issues, health care policy, LGBTQ matters, criminal justice reform, energy and environmental policy, and so on.  Anyone being honest about our current situation should be able to admit that there is a great deal of uncertainty and turmoil around lots of public policy, both within both of our political parties and between them. 

But there is no doubt that the Democratic Party has taken a definite radical turn in the last few years, which cannot be ignored.  It reminds a lot of us of what happened to our country in the late 1960s, with the rise of the counterculture and the New Left.  Only this time, most of our major institutions are themselves becoming dominated by the Left and the new 'woke' ideology.  We are increasingly a 'house divided', and as our Lord put it in the New Testament (as did Abraham Lincoln centuries later), 'a house divided cannot stand.'  

That is probably my greatest fear and worry, that the United States will become so divided ideologically that our union will not be able to withstand the strain of the division and we will, in some irreparable way, collapse as a nation.  But at this point, to quote another biblical writer, we 'see through a glass darkly'.  And that's not a good and pleasant place to be, for anyone.  But it is where we are, I think.

Election Day 2020 Thoughts and Predictions

 On this election day 2020, here’s what I’m thinking:

--It appears that it will be a close election, coming down to a few battleground states, primarily Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Michigan.

 --The momentum the last week or two appears to be with Trump.  His rallies and ‘parades’ have been massive and enthusiastic, while the Biden/Harris ticket, not so much. 

--Working in Trump’s favor are the following: a ‘shy Trump’ vote of significant proportion; movement among black and Hispanic voters toward Trump;  Republicans seem to be doing better in new registrations;  undecided voters sick of COVID lockdowns and urban rioting and disorder;  Democratic intentions to move away from fossil fuels; and the recent revelations about Hunter Biden (and the possible corruption of Joe Biden), though these have been censored rather effectively by Big Media and Big Tech.

 --Working against Trump are the following:  continuing unhappiness with Trump’s ‘Queens’ personality, a sense that he is not Presidential enough;  unhappiness with his handling of the COVID crisis;  the economic downturn due to COVID;  a Big Media and Big Tech that is politically partisan and decidedly anti-Trump;  some people—especially ‘suburban women’—who desire a ‘return to normal’;  younger ‘millennials’ who have been indoctrinated throughout their education in the new ‘woke’ ideology; and a new emphasis on mail-in voting that is ripe for abuse and fraud.

 And I’m sure there are more factors not mentioned above.  How all of that adds up in terms of votes is anyone’s guess.  I do think that a Trump victory would not be as shocking to Democrats and liberals this time as it was last.  There WOULD be major ‘resistance’ in that event in the big blue cities (especially DC) and it’s anyone’s guess where that goes. 

 If Biden ends up the clear winner, a whole different scenario unfolds.  I believe he is effectively a figurehead in the Democratic Party, without much energy, strength, mental acuity, or true popularity.  He only won the nomination because he was a 'least common denominator', inoffensive to the most people across the party and country.  The powers-behind-him would probably try to keep him out of public as much as possible, to avoid gaffes and exposing his obvious infirmities.  At the same time, there would be a more obvious struggle in the Democratic Party between the true Leftwing figures (like the Squad) and the more establishment oriented figures (like the Clintons and Obamas).  Both sides of this intraparty quarrel will be at the table and represented in the appointment process, yet we’ll probably get more insight into that struggle, since the big media would feel more free to report on it honestly with the political demise of Trump.

 Also, I think it is very possible that the Democratic powers-that-be will use Biden’s liabilities (obvious mental frailty and Hunter Biden’s scandals) as a way to keep him in line doing what they want him to do (such as creating new Democratic states like DC and Puerto Rico, and 'packing SCOTUS')  And at some point, probably within the next year or two, I think they will use those liabilities to ease Biden out of office and replace him with Kamala Harris, a useful and dangerously amoral tool for their cause.

 If the Democrats take over, it will be interesting to see how the conservatives and Republicans respond.  Obviously, there wouldn’t be immediate rioting on their part, as there almost surely will be by the radical Left if Trump wins again.   Yet when (not if) the Democrats move on major elements of their platform, such as gun-control measures, that is when all hell could potentially break loose in fly-over country.  I suppose that is my greatest fear, in terms of movement toward actual national division/civil war.  (In that regard, it will be interesting how the new SCOTUS configuration will change that movement toward gun control and/or confiscation.)

 Carl’s Prediction:  given all of the above, I think that Trump will squeak out a victory, with Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan giving him the edge.  I’ve seen several people predict an electoral college win of 279-259.  I’m going with that.  And in terms of the Senate, it will be a 50/50 split, with VP Pence holding the deciding vote (he’ll have to be there a lot!)

COVID-19: Trump's Waterloo?

Could the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic prove to be the adversary that brings on Trump's defeat in the 2020 November election?

Yes, it could.

Up until about a week or two ago, it looked like President Trump might be cruising to a 2020 reelection victory.  It's still early, for sure, but it's becoming clearer every day that the political, economic, and social chaos brought on by the 'Wuhan Virus' could well prove to be the foe that Trump is simply unable to defeat.

One of the remarkable aspects of Trump's initial 2016 campaign and subsequent presidency has been his uncanny ability to ultimately vanquish any and all opponents.  Republicans, Democrats, prosecutors, media, foreign leaders/countries:  you name it, and Trump has triumphed over them over the last 3 years.

As if to continue that crazy winning streak in the final stretch to the fall election, the Democratic primaries has unbelievably ended up with Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, two very old white men, as the remaining candidates for the nomination.  Can you think of anything that is more the antithesis of the modern Democratic Party?  TWO OLD WHITE MEN?  Really?

But the advent of COVID-19--the ultimate 'black swan' event--and the accompanying economic and political turmoil appears to have changed everything, and it would seem to be the conclusive test of our unusual, erratic, and unpredictable leader. 

If Trump can somehow withstand this furious assault and still be reelected, then his 'reign' will begin to take on a legendary, if not mythological, character.  If not, his enemies--and they are many--will be very happy to send him into an ignominious exile, like Emperor Napoleon of old.

Being a pessimist by nature, I tend to think he won't succeed and will be defeated.  But I have been wrong before in this matter.  Trump's pattern until now has been to (mostly) surprise and amaze his supporters, while at the same time throwing his political detractors and opponents into paroxysms of anguish and despair.  So we shall see.

Hillary Clinton As Joe Biden's VP

The more I think about it, the more obvious it becomes.  Joe Biden (or whoever his handlers are) will pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice-President, and she will gladly accept the nomination.  It makes perfect sense.

Is there anyone who is a better embodiment of the Establishment than HRC?  Of course not.

Uncle Joe (or better yet, Grandpa Joe) is going to need someone who everyone knows still has their wits about them.  And not only their wits, but their policy chops.  Neither of which Joe Biden has in abundance right now.

Furthermore, Hillary is clearly seeking revenge for her drubbing at the hands of the Bad Orange Man four years ago.  What a perfect way to possibly achieve that item on her bucket list!

And given what we're seeing in the ongoing mental deterioration of Joe Biden, it is entirely reasonable to expect that Hillary could find herself as President in the not too distance future, given what her position would be in the Presidential line of succession.  For that matter, once Joe is elected President and has a chance to fulfill his lifelong ambition, I don't think he really cares how long he serves after the first couple of years.  Really.  He's not all that crazy about actually BEING President, which is mind-numbingly hard and exhausting job.  I'd give him two years, max.  25th Amendment, you know.

Meanwhile, Kamala, Amy, Elizabeth, and hell, even Tulsi, can be installed in the cabinet:  Kamala as Attorney General, Amy as Secretary of HHS, Elizabeth as Treasury Secretary, and Tulsi as, let's see, how about Department of Homeland Security!

And of course, Mayor Pete can cut his teeth nationally as the new Secretary for Gender and Race!  Or more realistically, the Secretary of Education.

Perfect solution, making everyone happy!

P.s.  Can you even imagine a Hillary Clinton/Mike Pence VP debate?!  That should be a real humdinger!

Joe Biden: What Super Tuesday Hath Wrought

Okay, it's time to get back on the blog!  Super Tuesday (March 3rd) was a major shock to the national system, which is what I want to talk about here and now.  Let me begin with the conclusions I've come to as a result of the Super Tuesday political sea change.

CONCLUSION #1:  Barring a major personal/mental breakdown, Joe Biden is now the almost certain Democratic nominee.  And the Democratic Party and the Democratic media are now ALL IN on Biden.  They will do everything in their power to carry him over the finish line in November.

CONCLUSION #2:  The die is cast, and the only question is who the VP will be.  It almost certainly will be a woman, for obvious reasons.  Will it be Amy or Elizabeth, who both just existed the race?  What about Kamala?  How about Hillary or Michelle?  Honestly, if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on Hillary, as crazy as that sounds.  A perfect rematch.

CONCLUSION #3:  Joe Biden is an AMAZINGLY bad nominee, and I can hardly exaggerate this point.  In every way.  Getting him across the finish line in November will require a herculean effort.  I have absolutely no idea what the chances of it are.

CONCLUSION #4:  The Bloomberg Experience now proves this:  You cannot buy an election, no matter how much money you use, if you don't have a good message or a viable candidate.  Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden of course are both going to have plenty of money to spend. 

CONCLUSION #5:  Bernie Sanders is almost certainly not going to get the Democratic nomination, that is for sure.  The Democratic establishment has coalesced around Joe Biden, thereby preventing Bernie from getting too close.  However, he's a true believer in what he's doing, and also hardly a Democrat at all.  So he's not going to pull out or suspend before the convention.  Therefore, the effect of this on the Biden campaign is difficult to gauge at this point.  Many 'Bernie Bros' are not at all happy about this, and they could prove to be a formidable destructive force against the Democrats.

CONCLUSION #6:  The tsunami of anti-Biden oppo research about to be released into the body politic over the next 8 months of this election is going to be stunning, I think!  The MSM will try to ignore it, of course, but that may be impossible to do in the end.  Get ready.