My Take on the Race Last May

Last May 12th, I sent the following email to a Swedish cousin who lives in Japan, in response to his question to me, "What do you think, realistically, about Obama's chances of beating Senator McCain in the presidential elections later on?":

Mike,

Actually, I think Obama has a very good chance of beating McCain, which must seem amazing to people outside the U.S.

First of all, he is basically running on the same policies as President Bush (with the possible exception of Global Warming). President Bush has the highest ‘negatives’ that an American President has ever had. Bush is very unpopular here, and for good reason, of course. I voted against him twice, in 2000 and 2004, as did half of the country both times. As for McCain, he has two things going for him, make that three things: His record as a POW, his sense of humor, and his reputation as a maverick. But his age and lack of charisma, plus his ties to Bush and Bush’s policies are what doom him.

When you consider that the Democrat starts out with about half of the population with them, add to that the tremendous frustration here over the war, the economy, the rising price of gasoline, the looming health care crisis, etc, I think the Democrats have as good a possibility as anytime in the last 35 years, since Nixon and Watergate, when Jimmy Carter won (whom I also voted and campaigned for).

It will be a very vicious and dirty election, of course, with a lot of ‘mud-slinging’ from the Republicans. They will play the ‘race-card’, but I don’t think it will work this time. This country is increasingly post-racial, having had the likes of Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice in high positions already. Add to that the talents and charisma of Obama, and his race actually works for him, in a strange way. He is like a rock star, celebrity athlete, and movie star all rolled into one. Many people see him as a person of destiny. The young people of America are being excited and mobilized as they haven’t been since the 60s when I was growing up, and I feel sure that will continue into the fall. Plus, Obama has experience as a community organizer, so he understands the value and basics of bottom-up political organizing. My whole family helped canvas for him in the black community here in North Carolina, where they registered and got people out to vote, which helped to account for his large victory in North Carolina, which has really put him over for the nomination, it looks.

The power of the ‘Religious Right’ and the Conservative movement in general is waning rapidly. Many more people now understand how wrong they have been, and how they have distorted our policies here. There are so many things that have to be done, or we are going to be in a world of trouble.

I think I nailed it. Feeling good!