Prescient Souls and the Sin of Conformism

Ross Douthat, new conservative columnist, writes in the NYT about how George W. Bush rescued his Presidency by some controversial decisions on the surge and the bailout in the last couple of years. Then he writes:

In reality, many of the Bush-era ventures that look worst in hindsight were
either popular with the public at the time or blessed by the elite consensus.
Voters liked the budget-busting tax cuts and entitlement expansions. The Iraq
war’s cheering section included prominent Democrats and scores of liberal
pundits. And save for a few prescient souls, everybody — right and left, on Wall
Street and Main Street — was happy to board the real-estate express and ride it
off an economic cliff.

I hate to say 'I told you so', but I did tell you so. I was one of those 'prescient souls' who opposed both the Iraq War from before it began (publicly) and who predicted around the same time that the economic path we were on, including the housing bubble, would lead to disaster. (I convinced my son to avoid buying a house before the crash, for that very reason.)

Douthat is right, I was pretty much alone in that in my circle. Few joined me, and more than a few thought I was going off the deep end, when in fact they were the ones going off the deep end and I was trying desperately to get them to see their folly.

This leads to several conclusions. The 'conventional wisdom' is often tragically wrong and horribly misguided. Conforming to such 'conventional wisdom' is perhaps the most foolish thing anyone can do. However, for whatever reason, most people are conformists and therefore blind to what is actually going on. Only a few people have been given the gift of nonconformity (and it is a gift, not an achievement). These 'prophets' should be respected and listened to, not scoffed at and ignored.